Thursday’s outcome confirmed once more that Labour help is extra resilient within the capital than elsewhere, nevertheless it nonetheless suffered a lack of vote share
London’s first election of 2025 befell in Barnet’s Burnt Oak ward on Thursday. Burnt Oak lies simply south of Edgware on the western border of a borough that Labour gained from the Conservatives in Might 2022. However though Barnet is new to Labour management, Burnt Oak is without doubt one of the celebration’s conventional strongholds there.
Burnt Oak as a residential space is simply over a century outdated. The title comes, apparently, from a gaunt native oak tree that suffered a lightning strike a while earlier than the 1750s. There was not a lot there earlier than 1924, however that 12 months noticed the opening of the Burnt Oak Northern Line station and the London County Council’s resolution to construct a big residential property within the space.
In the present day, that property, the Watling Property, dominates the Burnt Oak ward. It was constructed to excessive design requirements, a public sector model of the privately developed Metroland suburbs: largely red-brick, low rise household homes, interspersed with inexperienced house. The Watling was designated a Conservation Space in 1998.
The ward accommodates just a few different areas across the fringe of the property, together with a stretch of the A5 (Watling Avenue, as was) and likewise Edgware Group Hospital, however its social and political composition is dominated by the Watling. It’s not famend as a retail or social centre, nevertheless it has two historic firsts: Tesco opened its first retailer in 1931 in Watling Avenue, and the outdated cinema on Burnt Oak Broadway grew to become London’s first bingo corridor in 1961.
Like many working-class areas of London, Burnt Oak is numerous. It’s 43 per cent white, together with a considerable variety of individuals from European Union member states, notably Bulgaria and Romania. Twenty-six per cent of its inhabitants are of Asian origin and 17 per cent are black. Forty-seven per cent are Christian, 20 per cent are Muslim and 7 per cent Hindu.
Though a lot of the housing was constructed by the general public sector, the Proper to Purchase has had a significant affect on this engaging suburb. Round half the property had been offered off by 1991. As of 2021, it’s 38 per cent proprietor occupied, 34 per cent social rented and 28 per cent personal rented.
Burnt Oak has been a Labour stronghold ever since tenants first moved into the Watling Property from interior metropolis Islington and St Pancras. Again within the Thirties, the property was typically dubbed “Little Moscow” by its middle-class neighbours. It was the one ward in Barnet that stayed Labour within the 1968 Conservative landslide, when Labour was lowered to 350 borough councillors in Higher London as an entire. In contrast to another outer London council-built communities, equivalent to New Addington and Hainault, Burnt Oak stayed loyal for Sadiq Khan within the mayoral election of 2021.
The by-election was triggered by the downfall of earlier Labour councillor (since 2014) Ammar Naqvi. Naqvi had obtained a senior place within the council’s Labour group and was made cupboard member for finance, however the Barnet Submit found that he had inaccurately claimed to have been employed as an Affiliate Professor at College School London medical college. Naqvi was faraway from his cupboard place and disadvantaged of the whip as quickly because the story appeared. He resigned from the council three days later, on 9 January.
Six candidates contested the by-election. They represented the 5 important events plus Charles Honderick, who stood for Rejoin EU. Labour’s defence was within the arms of Charlotte Daus (pictured), a regional officer of the Royal School of Nursing. The Conservatives fielded Kevin Ghateh, chair of Barnet Younger Conservatives whereas Gabrielle Bailey and Altan Akbiyik flew the flags of the Greens and Liberal Democrats respectively.
Reform UK’s candidate Sury Khatri has an fascinating historical past. He had represented Barnet’s Mill Hill ward as a Conservative councillor from 2010 to 2018, however fell out together with his colleagues and endorsed Labour’s council candidates (and the Lib Dems in Mill Hill) within the 2018 elections. His political journey has evidently taken a brand new course since then.
Burnt Oak was not going to slide away from Labour simply, even in a low-turnout by-election with an embarrassing trigger at a time when Labour’s electoral coalition was underneath stress. Daus was due to this fact predictably returned as the brand new councillor for Burnt Oak with 1,064 votes (45 per cent), greater than double the full of her nearest competitor, however down from 63.2 per cent of the vote in 2022. The Conservatives retained second place with 501 votes (21.2 per cent), and their share was down a few factors.
The principal gainer was Reform, whose candidate polled 434 votes (18.4 per cent) to realize his celebration’s most creditable outcome thus far in a borough by-election, overtaking the 16.9 per cent vote share Reform received in Bexley, Belvedere, again in October. Reform is already represented on Barnet Council due to the defection of Mark Shooter of Hendon ward, who had been elected as a Tory.
The opposite events didn’t make a lot of an affect, with the Greens on 202 votes, the Lib Dems on 93 and Rejoin EU on 68. Turnout was 17.3 per cent. The low participation was typical of current by-elections, and Burnt Oak’s turnout within the full borough elections of 2022 was solely 27.4 per cent.
To have misplaced Burnt Oak would have been a “ravens leaving the Tower” second for Labour, however the outcome was not precisely good for the celebration – a drop of 18.2 per cent is hardly trigger for celebration. It was the division of the opposition vote between the Tories and Reform that gave Labour its snug majority.
That mentioned, the outcome was an extra illustration of how a lot better Labour is doing in London than it’s elsewhere within the nation. On the identical day, the celebration misplaced a council seat in Torfaen in South Wales on an enormous swing to Reform, and one other in Warwick to the Greens.
There’s a restrict, although, to how a lot one can extrapolate from Thursday’s end result when waiting for the subsequent full council elections in Might 2026, as a result of Burnt Oak’s is an atypical group inside the borough. We are able to, although, anticipate it to be shut.
Assist OnLondon.co.uk and its freelancers for simply £5 a month or £50 a 12 months and get issues in your cash that different individuals don’t. Particulars HERE. Observe Lewis Baston on Bluesky. Photograph of Charlotte Daus from Barnet Labour X/Twitter feed.
