Unusually, a Brent Council by-election this week was held on Tuesday. There isn’t a legislation that requires by-elections of any variety to happen on Thursdays, as they often do. That’s merely a convention and councils are free to carry elections on completely different days of the week in the event that they so want.
Yesterday’s contest was in Alperton ward on the south west facet of the borough. Since 2024, it has fashioned a part of the Brent West constituency. Previous to that it was in Brent North and earlier than that in Brent South – compass factors are likely to wander in a wedge-shaped borough like Brent.
Alperton adjoins the Ealing ward of Hanger Hill, the place there was a by-election in October. However whereas Hanger Hill is a part of Ealing’s belt of genteel suburbia, Alperton is product of grittier stuff. My 1876 Handbook to the Environs of London notes that “the brickmaker and the builder threaten a descent” on the Alperton meadows, and the following century noticed trade flourish within the space – it’s situated simply throughout the North Round from the Park Royal property.
Alperton ward is split up by railways, canals and the River Brent. It stays amongst London’s most manufacturing-heavy districts. Its inhabitants elevated from 11,000 to fifteen,000 between 2011 and 2021, partly attributable to pure progress and partly due to new growth close to the tube station and on the Ealing Street finish of the ward, the place massive new residential buildings have appeared. This isn’t an uncommon story for an space with industrial land prepared for growth and fairly accessible by public transport because of its Piccadilly line station.
Alperton’s housing is split evenly between homes and flats, however with a comparatively low (15 per cent) proportion of social renting in comparison with proprietor occupation (48 per cent) and personal hire (38 per cent). It’s primarily Asian by ethnicity, with 59.5 per cent of individuals within the 2021 Census claiming Asian origin in comparison with 18.4 per cent white and 11.7 per cent black. The predominant Asian neighborhood by faith is Hindu, with 44.5 per cent of its inhabitants professing that religion. It is likely one of the most Hindu wards within the nation.
In current elections the Hindu vote has swung in direction of the Conservatives regardless of the nationwide decline in that social gathering’s assist. It’s a motion that predates the Prime Ministership of Rishi Sunak, having been apparent within the Could 2022 elections in Harrow particularly but in addition in some Hindu wards within the north of Brent. Nonetheless, none of this motion was obvious in Alperton in 2022 as a result of the ward’s political context was so completely different.
Tuesday’s by-election was triggered by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Anton Georgiou on the age of solely 30. Georgiou, who had contested the Brent & Harrow London Meeting seat for his social gathering in 2016, was first elected to the council at a earlier by-election, a peculiar contest held in January 2020. This noticed him prevail over a Labour candidate who had been disowned by his social gathering for making Islamophobic (and anti-Labour) social media statements. By-election guru Andrew Teale has the total story on the a number of odd features of that contest.
Georgiou’s victory was not a flash within the pan. Alperton had been good floor for the Lib Dems earlier than the 2010s, and their subsequent decline owed a lot to the 2010-15 nationwide authorities coalition with the Conservatives. Within the full borough elections of Could 2022, Georgiou was re-elected together with a Lib Dem colleague, although the ward’s third seat was received by Labour. The cut up between the 2 events was Lib Dems 46.5 per cent and Labour 41.3 per cent.
His determination to face down got here partly due to the discharge from jail of a person who had been convicted for stalking him – the police warned Georgiou that his public profile compromised his private security. He was additionally, regardless of the vitality he put into the duty, bored with being in opposition on a council with an awesome majority – 49 Labour councillors outnumbering 5 Conservatives and three Lib Dems. “I simply felt I used to be banging my head in opposition to a purple brick wall, and it’s so irritating,” he advised the Brent and Kilburn Instances.
4 candidates to succeed him got here ahead. Advertising and tech growth employee Charlie Clinton defended for the Lib Dems. An Alperton resident, he was additionally a basic election candidate for Sir Keir Starmer’s Holborn & St Pancras seat. Scholar Prerna Thakkar stood for Labour, Harmit Vyas, an area activist who stood within the 2020 by-election right here, represented the Conservatives, and retired financial institution employee Mahendra Nagi stood for Reform UK. The Greens determined to not discipline a candidate out of solidarity with Georgiou, given the circumstances that had introduced the by-election about.
The problems had been acquainted ones. Every candidate gave an announcement to Harrow On-line (Alperton has all the time had hyperlinks with Harrow what are as sturdy as these with Wembley and stronger than with Willesden). Crime featured prominently in all of them, as did the state of the native atmosphere. “Safer, cleaner and greener” (in Vyas’s phrases) had been frequent aims, even when the candidates disagreed on the most effective strategy to pursuing them. Labour’s Thakkar emphasised reasonably priced housing; Lib Dem Clinton appealed for extra of Brent’s dividend from native developments to be spent inside Alperton.
The outcome was according to expectations. The Lib Dems held the seat comfortably, with Clinton (pictured, foreground proper) polling 1,743 votes (48.5 per cent) to complete nicely forward of Labour (827 votes, 23.0 per cent). Lively Lib Dem campaigning and leaflet blitzes had been a part of the explanation for the very creditable turnout of 33.7 in a typically high-turnout ward, which had the most effective participation (43.4 per cent) within the borough in 2022.
Labour’s vote share loss (18.3 per cent) was almost an identical to that in final week’s by-election within the Burnt Oak ward of Barnet. And though the Lib Dems have most to rejoice from the outcome – a big majority in a ward that returned a cut up lead to 2022 – the Conservatives can take some satisfaction from having polled 740 votes (20.6 per cent).
Their vote share was up 8.4 proportion factors in contrast with 2022 and their third finest London by-election efficiency because the basic election. Additionally they completed comfortably forward of Reform (286 votes, 8.0 per cent) within the battle for management of the Proper.
The Tories in all probability benefited from the persevering with realignment of Hindu voters of their favour, even in a context the place the primary battle was Lib Dem v Labour. The result suggests – tentatively – that the Tories could also be in good condition to retain management of Harrow Council in Could 2026, and to choose up some seats within the extra amenable wards within the north of Brent.
After what felt like a protracted hole between Greenwich Thamesmead West on 17 December and Barnet Burnt Oak on 13 February, the Brent by-election is a part of a run of London by-elections. There are three extra to come back this week, to be held, according to conference, on Thursday – one in Barking & Dagenham’s Whalebone ward, the opposite two within the Lillie and the Hammersmith Broadway wards of Hammersmith & Fulham. Additional contests in Westminster, Barnet (once more) and Hounslow will observe within the subsequent couple of weeks. On London will report on all of them.
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