Lewis Baston: Ilford Independent inflicts heavy defeat on Labour

Labour crashed to defeat within the newest London borough by-election, which befell in Redbridge Council’s Mayfield ward on Thursday. After a couple of weeks when the anti-Labour tide gave the impression to be ebbing within the capital, the size of the loss – vote share down practically 45 proportion factors – was a shock to the celebration.

The winner was the candidate of the Ilford Independents, one among a number of localist, left wing and Islamically-inflected political events which have sprung up since 2022.

Mayfield is a suburban ward on Redbridge’s southern border, south of Ilford city centre and adjoining the Upney space of Barking. The housing inventory is usually Edwardian and inter-war semi-detached and terraced dwellings, and largely owner-occupied. There’s little or no social housing.

Mayfield is uncommon for an space of London in that bungalows are quite a few there. The ward’s fundamental landmark is Ilford’s South Park (to not be confused with its cartoon namesake in Colorado).

Mayfield is a type of bizarre areas that tells a broader story of social and political change in outer London. The ward’s inhabitants is predominantly Asian. On the time of the 2021 census, 67 per cent of the inhabitants had Asian ethnic origin. White folks account for 17 per cent and black folks, seven per cent. By faith, the biggest neighborhood is Muslim (51 per cent), though there may be important Sikh (11 per cent) and Hindu (9 per cent) illustration. Twenty-one per cent are Christian.

Redbridge as a complete has seen dramatic demographic change within the final decade, though Mayfield already had a robust BAME majority (73 per cent) on the time of the 2011 census – its ethnic transition got here earlier.

Politically, it was once a Conservative ward, forming one of many Tories’ stronger sections of what was then a suburban marginal parliamentary seat. from 1950 to 1979, it was represented within the Commons by both Albert Cooper for the Conservatives and Arnold Shaw for Labour, who buying and selling locations within the basic elections of 1966, 1970 and February 1974.

When Labour’s Mike Gapes gained Ilford South in 1992, it was the primary time Labour had preavailied within the seat with out profitable nationally, and Labour colleagues gained Mayfield for the primary time within the borough elections of 1994.

The ward remained marginal for some time, with the Conservatives profitable two of its three seats in each 2002 and 2006. However Labour gained decisively in 2010 and, till the newest by-election, had not seemed again since.

The celebration’s slate gained over 70 per cent of the Mayfield vote in each 2018 and 2022, within the latter 12 months additionally racking up an unlimited majority of 58 seats to 5 Conservatives throughout the borough. Solely as lately as 2014 had Labour gained its first council majority.

Among the many profitable Mayfield candidates for Labour since 2010 was been Jas Athwal, who went on to change into chief of the council in 2014 and was elected MP for Ilford South in July 2024. Previous to that, the inner Labour politics of the seat had change into disputatious.

Gapes defected to Change UK in early 2019 and the succession was bitterly contested. Athwal appear to be favorite for choice for the overall election of that 12 months, however was suspended on the eve of a vital membership vote due to an allegation made in opposition to him. He was later cleared, however not till after the Left’s choice to run for the seat, Sam Tarry was chosen after which elected to the Commons. Later, Tarry was deselected and Athwal turned his successor.

By final 12 months, the politics of Ilford South had shifted quite a bit for the reason that days when it swung with the nationwide pendulum. Athwal was elected MP with solely 40 per cent of the vote, down 25 factors on Tarry’s end in 2019. The Conservatives completed a bedraggled third with 15 per cent, whereas candidates to the left of Labour polled 36 per cent, the biggest part of that being 23 per cent for an Unbiased candidate, Noor Jahan Begum.

Thursday’s by-election was triggered by Athwal standing down from his council seat. Its backdrop was fashioned by the fragmentation in 2024 of the beforehand strong Labour vote in Ilford South and throughout north east London typically. So too, earlier borough by-election contests at which Left and Muslim-aligned Independents and native events had emerged to problem Labour.

It was Noor Begum (pictured above, proper), having polled creditably in Ilford South final 12 months, who stepped ahead to contest Mayfield beneath the label of Ilford Independents, a neighborhood political celebration, with the backing of a coalition of localist and left-wing teams.

Begum works as a commissioner of well being and social care and serves as a Justice of the Peace. The 5 giant English events put ahead candidates too. Mazhar Saleem defended for Labour having contested Fairlop ward in 2002, one of many two left in Redbridge to elect a Conservative that 12 months. Robin Thakur stood for theTories, providing a singularly uninformative web site. Nadir Gilani (Inexperienced), Neil Hepworth (Liberal Democrat) and Paul Luggeri (Reform UK) accomplished the poll paper line-up.

The Begum marketing campaign for Mayfield was much like her basic election effort, with Palestine as a doorstep situation however her public platform concentrating on native issues, alleging that Labour in Redbridge had “a really shoddy file.”

She additionally criticised Athwal, who was the topic of an August 2024 BBC investigation concerning the poor circumstances of properties he was renting out to tenants and  failing to adjust to the owner registration system that he himself had launched in Redbridge. Begum pointedly promised “integrity.” The nationwide context of cuts to the winter gas allowance and incapacity assist was additionally unhelpful to Labour

In 2017, there was some antagonistic remark concerning the basic election of that 12 months happening throughout Ramadan, with fears expressed that it will make it harder for Muslims to take part. Nevertheless, the Muslim Council of Britain thought there was no purpose why it will, and turnout amongst Muslim voters was superb. Voting isn’t inherently extra tiring than any bizarre every day activity, and Muslim students typically agree that collaborating in elections isn’t haram.

There was no downside, both, eight years later, with Redbridge scheduling a by-election in a majority-Muslim ward in the course of the month of fasting and prayer. Turnout was 25 per cent, down solely six factors decrease than in Might 2022 and one of many smaller falls in participation in current by-elections. Begum’s victory was complete. She gained 1,080 votes (42.5 per cent) whereas Saleem polled 663 for Labour – 26.1 per cent in comparison with 70.7 per cent for the Labour slate three years in the past.

The loss was simply the worst when it comes to vote share Labour has suffered in a London by-election within the present cycle. In such a polarised contest, the Conservatives (494 votes, 19.4 per cent) did fairly nicely, growing their vote share by a couple of proportion factors. The opposite events all polled lower than 5 per cent.

Begum is the primary Ilford Unbiased to be elected to Redbridge council and can take her place on the opposition benches alongside three ex-Labour Independents and 5 Conservatives. There arestill 53 Labour councillors, so the celebration’s majority is in no speedy hazard.

There’ll quickly be one other by-election in Redbridge, this time in Hainault ward on 1 Might, following the resignation in shame of Labour councillor Sam Gould. Hainault’s is a unique type of neighborhood from Mayfield’s, being largely white in a council-built property. It’d subsequently see a problem to Labour from a unique supply – it gives Reform UK with its finest likelihood thus far of profitable a seat of a London council.

Nevertheless, there are extra Redbridge wards that resemble Mayfield than resemble Hainault, so though nationwide politics appears to revolve across the battle for voters who float between Labour, Conservative and Reform, London native politics – notably within the north east of the town – is extra concerning the hazard to Labour’s left flank.

There appears to be a selected downside for the celebration in Redbridge, following the massive falls in vote share within the two Ilford seats within the basic election and now in Mayfield. That mentioned, Begum was a very sturdy candidate and was in a position to attract on assist from activists each regionally and from additional afield. These weren’t solely from elsewhere in London. After the consequence, Begum thanked campaigners from Birmingham and Hertfordshire for his or her assist.

It stays to be seen, subsequently, whether or not the Ilford Independents can run a broader marketing campaign throughout a number of wards and discover ample credible candidates to mount a major problem to Labour on the subsequent full borough elections in Might, 2026. However there may be clearly potential for it.

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