Lewis Baston on Labour’s Barnet by-election hold

London’s newest electoral contest, held on Thursday, was in Barnet, the place Labour – surprisingly efficiently, regardless of unpromising circumstances – defended a seat within the marginal ward of Whetstone, an space the place the social gathering had by no means gained earlier than 2022.

Whetstone is a compact ward stretching between the Barnet department of the Northern line at Totteridge and Whetstone station and the principle line northwards out of King’s Cross at Oakleigh Park. Its centre is a stretch of the outdated Nice North Highway between North Finchley and Chipping Barnet. My 1876 Hand Ebook of the Environs of London by James Thorne is just not complimentary: “The village straggles for a substantial distance in disconnected rows and teams of homes…principally small, some old style, many poor…the place itself is kind of devoid of curiosity.”

Trendy Whetstone is a typical outer London suburb, the homes that attracted Thorne’s condescension crammed out with successive generations of suburban dwellings. Oakleigh Park was beginning to be developed within the 1870s and it’s now essentially the most fascinating finish of the ward, with giant houses on gently curving avenues. The newest space to be developed is a brand new property at Sweets Method, which is constructed to a reasonably excessive density on former Ministry of Defence land.

Whetstone’s demographics are what one may anticipate from an outer London commuter space. It’s 66 per cent owner-occupied. Forty-seven per cent of its inhabitants are within the professions or administration (in comparison with 33 per cent in England) and 53 per cent have degree-level {qualifications} (34 per cent in England). It’s majority white (62 per cent) however with a various vary of minority ethnicities, the most important being Asian British (19 per cent). 9 per cent are Jewish by religion.

Whetstone was a brand new ward title creating as a result of boundary adjustments in 2022, however it’s a successor to the earlier Oakleigh ward, which lined a bigger space and had three councillors relatively than Whetstone’s two. Oakleigh had at all times been a secure however not monolithically Tory ward, voting Conservative 51 per cent and Labour 32 per cent within the 2018 borough elections.

Labour swept to a surprisingly emphatic victory in Whetstone’s inaugural contest in 2022 – 51 per cent to 36 per cent for the Conservatives. The boundary adjustments most likely didn’t assist Labour a lot – the social gathering gained seats as properly in Barnet Vale, which took within the northern a part of the outdated Oakleigh. The win got here because of concentrating on and dealing in a ward that had not beforehand been severely contested.

Thursday’s by-election arose out of the blue from the resignation of one of many two councillors elected in such triumph in 2022. Liron Velleman, who had not too long ago begun chairing Barnet’s pension fund committee, resigned from the Labour group on 1 April and from the council on 2 April. He had been head of politics on the commerce union Group, however abruptly ceased to be employed by the union similtaneously he was leaving the council.

Barnet Conservatives commented that Velleman had been “pressured to resign below a cloud of darkness” and in contrast the state of affairs to that earlier this yr in Burnt Oak, caused by the Cupboard member for finance being uncovered as having misrepresented his employment.

Eight candidates contested the by-election. The large 5 events have been joined by perennial candidate Richard Hewison for Rejoin EU, an unbiased socialist and one other unbiased. Labour’s new candidate was Ezra Cohen (pictured, centre) who has labored as a volunteer for good causes within the borough.

The principal challenger to Labour was the Conservative Tom Smith, who had represented Oakleigh ward from 2018 till he was defeated within the contest for Whetstone in 2022. Smith, a Tory average with parliamentary ambitions, had been an efficient councillor and was a robust alternative. Adrian Kitching, a enterprise marketing consultant, got here ahead for Reform UK.

The circumstances of the by-election and the fee to the general public purse featured within the marketing campaign, with the Conservatives demanding additional rationalization from the Labour administration. Reform used nationwide themes, but additionally proclaimed that “Barnet is Damaged” – a phrase beforehand extra related to a long-running left of centre native weblog in the course of the 2002-22 Conservative administration. Labour campaigned for step-free entry to Totteridge and Whetstone tube station, aiming to draw votes from older residents specifically.

Cohen held the seat, polling 965 votes (33.5 per cent). Smith was runner up with 818 votes (28.4 per cent) and Kitching got here in third with 592 (20.5 per cent). Better of the remainder was Charli Thompson for the Greens, with 208 votes (7.2 per cent) adopted by Liberal Democrat Luigi Bille (176 votes, 6.1 per cent). Turnout, 34.3 per cent, was the best in a London by-election thus far this yr.

The consequence was a aid for Labour and a distinction with the extreme beating the social gathering skilled within the native elections exterior London on 1 Could and certainly, additionally on Thursday, its loss to Reform on a 40-point swing in a by-election in Stoke-on-Trent. Even so, the Labour exhibiting is to not be mistaken for a triumph, because the vote share was down 18 share factors since 2022, which has similarities to the loss in Burnt Oak in February.

The end result was disappointing for the Barnet Conservatives, who may have anticipated a mixture of Velleman’s resignation, anti-incumbent feeling domestically and nationally and an honest candidate to have added as much as extra.

Approaching prime of the Finchley Church Finish by-election in March, the place there was nearly no swing, Barnet Tories appear to be making laborious work of recovering from the traditionally unhealthy consequence they skilled in Could 2022. Their vote share in Whetstone dropped by almost eight share factors. The online Labour to Conservative swing in was 5.1 per cent. If this have been repeated throughout Barnet, Labour would most likely nearly retain a majority, relying on how one allocates seats within the carefully fought wards.

The Reform vote share was the social gathering’s third greatest in a London by-election (after Brentford East and Hainault). The truth that it was increased in Whetstone than within the rather more fertile territory of Burnt Oak again in February illustrates that the Reform tide has risen even in Barnet.

Its vote share in London is excessive sufficient, as in Whetstone, to deprive the Conservatives of an opportunity of victory however not, in distinction to a lot of the remainder of the nation, excessive sufficient to start out profitable broad swathes of seats. Labour, which didn’t lose many votes on its left flank, prevailed over the divided proper.

The borough elections in 2026 will likely be a fancy set of contests. Barnet will likely be fascinating. It’s a borough that, together with Wandsworth and Westminster, will likely be considered a key take a look at of the state of the competition within the main social gathering battlegrounds – if, given the rising the energy of their numerous challengers, that’s nonetheless an sufficient description for Barnet, the place a lot of the ward battles are between Labour and the Conservatives.

A consequence just like the one in Whetstone – Labour surviving on a low swing and a fragmented vote – appears attainable. However such an consequence would most likely imply Reform doing a lot better  election within the locations the place they appear to be being the principle challengers: in Bexley to the Conservatives, in Barking & Dagenham to Labour. It should inform us relatively much less in regards to the boroughs fought between Labour and different centre and left events. However Whetstone, and Barnet, are very a lot not “devoid of curiosity” in electoral phrases both now or this time subsequent yr.

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