The Labour Mayor’s relationship with the Labour authorities shouldn’t be antagonistic, because it was with the Tories, however negotiations with it are complicated nonetheless
Within the run as much as the federal government’s much-anticipated complete spending assessment, now due in June, would possibly we see Sir Sadiq Khan shifting his place on the enlargement of Heathrow airport?
He has all the time insisted that the large prize for London, now we have now a Labour authorities in addition to a Labour Mayor, is the long-term funding deal the capital wants to keep up its standing as international metropolis and nationwide engine of financial progress. Topping the precedence listing are the Bakerloo line extension to Lewisham and the Docklands Mild Railway extension to Thamesmead, which between them would unlock hundreds of latest properties.
There have been early grounds for optimism within the autumn finances: £485 million of capital funding for Transport for London within the coming yr, nearly double the earlier authorities’s 2024/25 allocation; £100 million additional for reasonably priced housing and Whitehall money to get HS2 to Euston. And December’s devolution white paper dedicated the federal government to creating a plan to make sure “long-term monetary sustainability” for TfL from 2026/27.
There wasn’t a lot for London in Rachel Reeves’s current “go for progress” speech, although. The time period itself could have been dropped, however her phrases had a decidedly “levelling up” really feel. Even when successfully giving the inexperienced mild to Heathrow, Reeves was at pains to emphasize that 60 per cent of the expansion forecast to be generated by the airport’s third runway would go to areas “exterior London and the south east”.
Which will clarify the tenor of the Mayor’s newest pitch: that cash spent by TfL is sweet for the entire nation. A brand new Metropolis Corridor report reveals the transport company spending greater than £12 billion over the previous two years with 3,000 UK suppliers, two-thirds of them based mostly exterior London, from Falkirk and Ballymena to Goole, Derby and the Isle of Wight. That funding helps 100,000 jobs a yr, with nearly a 3rd of the spending offering financial advantages exterior the capital, the evaluation says.
Is the message getting by way of? As negotiations proceed between TfL, the federal government and Metropolis Corridor there appears to be some nervousness. Khan says solely that he’s “wanting ahead” to working “constructively” with Whitehall on that long-term funding deal, suggesting nothing is settled. A giant concern is that Reeves’s help for the airport may show deadly to Khan’s personal plans, particularly if the federal government, already anticipated to log off enlargement proposals for Gatwick and Luton airports within the subsequent 4 weeks, appears to be like eager to keep away from a doable regional backlash if it agrees additional large allocations down south.
Even whereas predominantly privately funded, Heathrow may nonetheless make calls on the general public purse, diverting cash from different initiatives, Khan has warned. “The runway can be constructed throughout the busiest motorway within the nation, the M25. Who’s paying for a tunnel below the M25? Who’s going to pay for the A4 to be re-routed? What concerning the new trains required for the Piccadilly line, the brand new trains required for the Elizabeth line?I’d fairly that taxpayers’ cash was used on different infrastructure the place all of us agree…fairly than this one the place there’s a metropolis that’s divided.”
Up to now, Khan is betting on Gatwick’s enlargement being a “slam dunk” argument towards the Heathrow plan. It will enhance passenger capability from 40 million to 75 million a yr by the late 2030s, whereas Luton’s plans, together with the Stansted improve already permitted, will add hundreds of thousands extra. However that received’t be sufficient to counter the crucial of sustaining and enhancing Heathrow’s international hub standing.
The Mayor should have a number of playing cards to play, notably if, as LCA director Nick Bowes, beforehand Khan’s coverage chief for some 5 years, urged in an insightful piece final week, he’s ready to ease off on his opposition to Heathrow enlargement. With one authorized problem already rejected, there could also be restricted scope for one more, Bowes says. As a substitute, he conjectures, in return for “muting his disquiet”, Khan would possibly safe funding for a “swathe” of transport enhancements in and round eest London”, particularly if pitched as mitigation of the scheme’s impacts on air high quality and congestion.
That would embody the capacity-boosting Piccadilly line signalling improve, revisiting plans for southern and western rail hyperlinks to the airport, and even resurrecting Crossrail 2. Khan wouldn’t be alone – MPs in Studying and Slough are already arguing the case for the western hyperlink.
Would that strategy be the death-knell for the Bakerloo and DLR extensions? TfL chief Andy Lord, whereas nonetheless describing his talks with Whitehall as “constructive”, wasn’t over-optimistic at his board assembly final week. A “nice end result” from the spending assessment, he stated, can be securing “no less than one” of the proposed extensions.
Is there one other approach? A brand new report from foyer group BusinessLDN suggests revisiting the “tax increment financing” mannequin, which noticed Metropolis Corridor fund the Northern line extension to Battersea, by borrowing towards future will increase in Enterprise Charges among the many companies benefiting.
Taking an identical strategy, it says, may elevate £4.5 billion over 25 years for the Bakerloo and DLR extensions in addition to the West London Orbital, unlocking greater than 100,000 new properties and creating over 10,000 new jobs. It will cut back the necessity for public funding in London, making the capital much less depending on authorities largesse and releasing up spending elsewhere.
Possibly that received’t occur this yr – there are complexities to be resolved. However it’s a proposal whose time could also be about to return.
OnLondon.co.uk supplies distinctive protection of the capital’s politics, growth and tradition. Help it for simply £5 a month or £50 a yr and get issues to your cash different folks received’t. Particulars HERE. Comply with Charles Wright on Bluesky. Aerial picture of Heathrow from Heathrow Airports Ltd.
