Reviews of their imminent loss of life would possibly flip be untimely if their particular strengths can thrive inside a wider sustainable transport method
New evaluation from suppose tank Centre for London has described an inexorable decline in black cab numbers, from nearly 23,000 in 2014 to 14,500 in 2024. Simply 104 new drivers joined the commerce final yr. If the pattern isn’t arrested, the report warns, the “iconic” London taxi may very well be extinct by 2045.
We’ve heard this earlier than. A London Meeting report expressed issues about the way forward for the black cab again in 2005, and in 2014, when driver numbers had been static for a decade, an extra Meeting report advised the commerce was threatened by TfL’s “woefully insufficient” method to Uber particularly.
Sadiq Khan addressed a few of these issues: his 2016 taxi and personal rent motion plan tightened the principles for the personal commerce, supplied £50 million to assist shift the taxi fleet to zero emission and pledged to keep up its “particular privileges”, together with the proper to ply for rent, to drive in bus lanes and retain unique use of taxi ranks. The Mayor went on to take away the congestion cost exemption for personal rent autos, whereas sustaining it for black cabs.
However simply three years later, a follow-up Meeting investigation advised black cab drivers nonetheless noticed their commerce as “locked in a battle for its survival”, with issues about competitors, altering passenger calls for, driver numbers persevering with to fall and the dearth of clear authorized definitions of “plying for rent” as distinct from “pre-booked” to protect the excellence between licensed taxis and personal rent. The pandemic noticed an extra driver exodus, and in 2023 Khan himself nervous that the black cab may very well be going “the way in which of the pink phone field”.
So are we now at a real crossroads for the black cab commerce? All eyes are on Khan, along with his promised new taxi and personal rent motion plan, which he has stated will “clearly set out the function taxis will play in London’s future”, due very shortly.
Intervention on the escalating price of shopping for or renting after which working a black cab is vital to the persevering with viability of the commerce, in line with Centre for London. There’s just one authorised automobile in manufacturing that meets zero emission, accessibility and “turning circle” necessities. This prices some £75,000, whereas working prices are up 41 per cent since 2019 and grants for swapping diesel for electrical cabs are decreasing.
Metropolis Corridor ought to due to this fact be lobbying Whitehall on three fronts, the suppose tank says: for a authorities interest-free mortgage scheme for buying new cabs; for diesel automobile scrappage and alternative grants to be prolonged; and for the VAT exemption for totally wheelchair-accessible autos to be prolonged to black cabs.
The Mayor’s new plan must also define a 10-year technique for black cab driver recruitment and retention, the report says. That ought to embrace much less advanced preparations for the obligatory Data take a look at, first launched in 1865 and presently testing potential drivers on 320 routes and landmarks inside a six-mile radius of Charing Cross, in addition to key routes from central to outer London.
Essentially, maybe, Khan may make clear the place black cabs match into the mayoral goal for 80 per cent of journeys to be taken by “sustainable” modes of transport moderately than personal vehicles. That would imply counting them as public transport, permitting entry by default to your entire street community within the capital, together with all bus lanes and low visitors neighbourhoods – a quid professional quo maybe for Transport for London’s strict necessities, in addition to recognition of the cabs’ function as a completely accessible transport choice.
It’s a problem for TfL, the official taxi and personal rent regulator. There’s actually no urge for food for the “free-for-all” deregulation typically advocated, and Khan received’t be repeating his predecessor Boris Johnson’s description of black cab drivers as “Luddites who don’t wish to see new expertise”.
However whereas sustaining the commerce’s present privileges, the intention is more likely to stay permitting “truthful competitors” throughout the taxi and personal rent trade. Would possibly this nonetheless imply the gradual loss of life of the black cab commerce, even with extra funding, because the experience hailing apps proceed their advance, or a future as a distinct segment “heritage” service?
Maybe not. Among the many downbeat predictions, there are some grounds for optimism. With the proper help, stated Steve McNamara, normal secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Affiliation in response to the brand new report, “we will cement our essential function as a completely accessible a part of London’s transport combine. We’ve been right here because the time of Oliver Cromwell, and we aren’t going wherever quickly”. Londoners are supportive too. In a TfL survey final yr, 49 per cent stated black cabs provided good or superb worth for cash, and 66 per cent stated extra ought to be completed to help the commerce.
However persevering with to name the black cab “iconic” is probably not too useful. As London Meeting transport committee chair Elly Baker stated on the report’s launch, the black cab is “not simply an icon however a very vital a part of the general public transport system”. That’s the message the commerce and Londoners need the Mayor to listen to.
OnLondon.co.uk gives distinctive, no-advertising and no-paywall protection of the capital’s politics, growth and tradition. Assist the web site and its writers for simply £5 a month or £50 a yr and get issues that different individuals received’t. Particulars HERE. Comply with Dave Hill on Bluesky. Think about from Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Affiliation web site.
